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Even though volume is dropping, the price of bitcoin continues to target $40K, confusing traders


“Something doesn’t feel right” about the latest BTC price uptick, a warning tells traders, as Bitcoin open interest passes $17 billion.

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Bitcoin puzzles traders as BTC price targets $40K despite declining volume

Bitcoin (BTC) may have tapped $37,000 for the first time in 18 months, but traders are getting suspicious of BTC price action.

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BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC price move “doesn’t feel right”

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After snap overnight gains, Bitcoin is attempting to crush resistance on the way toward the $40,000 mark.

​​Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows BTC/USD snatching at $37,000 after initially breaking through prior to the Wall Street open.

Now up 6.6% in November, the largest cryptocurrency is surprising some market participants with its strength, having already gained nearly 30% in October.

For on-chain monitoring resource Material Indicators, the problem lies in trading volume. Upside has been brisk, it acknowledged in its latest post on X (formerly Twitter), but support in the form of strong volume is nowhere to be seen at current levels.

“Support is anchored by new plunge protection at $33k. Meanwhile resistance at $40k has moved up to the $42k range,” it noted.

An accompanying chart showed a print of BTC/USDT order book liquidity on the largest global exchange, Binance.

“There is no denying the fact that price has been challenging a number of different local top signals, but there is also no denying that something doesn’t seem right about this move,” Material Indicators continued.

“The most obvious red flag for me is that we are seeing price appreciate on declining volume. That typically doesn’t end well, but we are going to have to watch to see if this time is different.”
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BTC/USDT order book data for Binance. Source: Material Indicators/X

Popular trader Skew meanwhile revealed whale selling ongoing toward $40,000 — now likely a key psychological level in its own right.

$BTC
bear whale aka gigantic seller has been selling into price for past few days

they're dumping again here

$38K - $40K is probably where they get carried out of the market

— Skew Δ (@52kskew) November 9, 2023

Open interest nears seven-month high

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Elsewhere, financial commentator Tedtalksmacro pointed to increasing open interest (OI) — something which has formed the backbone of snap upside moves in recent weeks and months.

Related: Bitcoin ETF launch could be delayed more than a month after SEC approval

Market heating up again.

~15k BTC in open interest added in the past 10 hours.

That's about $525MM USD worth... the vibes are slowly returning. pic.twitter.com/aSMbZxrySO

— tedtalksmacro (@tedtalksmacro) November 9, 2023

Per data from monitoring resource CoinGlass, total Bitcoin futures OI stood at more than $17 billion at the time of writing — the highest value since mid-April.

“During the bear, the market fades these OI impulses --> a predatory, ranging environment,” Tedtalksmacro wrote in follow-up analysis.

“We'll know it's full bull time, when the market ignores this and trends higher on higher OI. Something to watch imo.”
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Bitcoin exchange futures open interest (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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